The UK labour market is cooling, and that changes how you plan a depot team. Early estimates for May to July 2026 suggest a decrease of 6,000 (0.8%) vacancies to 707,000 across the UK compared with February to April 2026 ONS - Vacancies and jobs in the UK, August 2026. That follows a longer slide: total estimated vacancies were down by 76,000 (9.5%) in December 2025 to February 2026 from a year earlier, falling in 15 of the 18 sectors ONS – Vacancies and jobs in the UK (March 2026).
The wider picture is what the Low Pay Commission calls a 'low hire, low fire' market, with weaker recruitment but only slight increases in redundancies, and vacancies below pre-pandemic levels Low Pay Commission Report 2025, GOV.UK. For depot managers, that means fewer people moving jobs, so the right person is harder to reach even when the headline numbers look quieter.
Two signals matter most when you size a depot team: how permanent and temporary demand is moving, and how quickly each sector is turning over. There's a useful shift here. Permanent placements have finally stabilised, ending a decline in place since Liz Truss's premiership 45 months ago, while temporary billings increased for a fourth consecutive month REC / KPMG Report on Jobs (S&P Global). For logistics, where seasonal peaks and sudden volume swings are normal, that steady temporary demand tells you flexible headcount is still doing heavy lifting.
Automation is reshaping roles too. Sectors like retail and logistics were already actively integrating AI to improve customer insights and streamline functions such as inventory management and supply chains AI Adoption Research - GOV.UK. So when you plan headcount, plan for the skills that sit alongside those systems, not just the volume of pickers and drivers you needed last year.
Start by matching your staffing plan to the market in front of you, not a forecast built months ago. Here's a practical way to do it.
The goal is simple: right people, right shifts, right moment. When your plan reads live signals, you stop over-hiring into a quiet month and under-staffing a sudden peak.
The right tool turns those signals into hires fast. Reed.ai searches a database of 15 million people, ranks a shortlist in under 30 seconds, contacts matched people in under one minute, and can book an interview in under three minutes, so you can move the moment a peak appears. Our recruitment agent manages recruitment end to end for 8% on a successful hire, with no monthly fee and no upfront cost. Ready to plan your next depot team around live demand? Start today.
