The wider picture is steadier than it's been in a while. Early estimates for May to July 2026 suggest a decrease of 6,000 (0.8%) vacancies to 707,000 across the UK ONS - Vacancies and jobs in the UK, August 2026. That's a small move after a sharp run of declines, and it signals a market finding its floor rather than falling away.
To see how far we've come, look back a year. Total estimated vacancies were down by 76,000 (9.5%) in December 2025 to February 2026 from a year earlier, decreasing in 15 of the 18 sectors ONS – Vacancies and jobs in the UK (March 2026). The direction of travel has clearly flattened since then, which is good news for depots trying to plan headcount.
The labour market is currently described as 'low hire, low fire', with weaker recruitment but only slight increases in redundancies, and vacancies have dropped below pre-pandemic levels Low Pay Commission Report 2025, GOV.UK. For depots, that means fewer people moving jobs, so the ones you want are harder to tempt and worth moving quickly for.
There's a real shift in how people want to work. Permanent placements have finally stabilised, ending a decline in place for 45 months, while temporary billings increased for a fourth consecutive month REC / KPMG Report on Jobs (S&P Global). For logistics, that steady pull towards temporary work maps neatly onto seasonal peaks, cover shifts and flexible warehouse rotas.
Competition for people hasn't eased much either. There were 2.5 unemployed people per vacancy in March to May 2026, a ratio that has remained at 2.5 since July to September 2025 ONS - Vacancies and jobs in the UK. A stable ratio means depots are hiring in a settled but still competitive market, so standing out matters.
Demand isn't flat everywhere. Vacancy estimates decreased in 3 of the 5 employment size bands, with the largest decrease for businesses with 1 to 9 employees (down 8,000 vacancies) ONS - Vacancies and jobs in the UK. Smaller operators are pulling back hardest, which can leave room for depots that keep hiring steadily through the cycle.
Speed is the first lever. In a 'low hire, low fire' market, the drivers, warehouse operatives and shift managers you want are already in work and rarely on the market for long. A clear advert, a quick first response and a booked interview within days keep good people engaged before they drift elsewhere.
Be specific about the shift. Spell out the hours, the site, the pay basis and whether the role is permanent or temporary. With temporary demand still rising, being upfront about flexible and seasonal options widens your pool rather than narrowing it.
Plan for peak before it arrives. Build a simple pipeline of people you can call on for cover and seasonal pushes, keep in touch between contracts, and treat every temporary worker as a possible permanent hire. The depots that plan ahead spend less time firefighting when volumes spike.
This is where we fit. Reed.ai searches a database of 15 million candidates to surface people who match your depot role, then manages the recruitment end to end so your team can stay on the floor. Our recruitment agent manages recruitment end to end for 8% on a successful hire, with no monthly fee and no upfront cost. If you're planning your next driver or warehouse hire, start a role with us today and see your shortlist.
