The market is cautious, but it is not quiet. The Low Pay Commission describes today's labour market as 'low hire, low fire', with weaker recruitment and vacancies that have dropped below pre-pandemic levels Low Pay Commission Report 2025, GOV.UK. Against that subdued backdrop, employers took a careful approach through 2025, yet clear demand hotspots stayed open for specialist tech skills including AI, data, enterprise applications and cyber security Computer Weekly (tech recruitment outlook 2026).
The appetite for AI talent is sharp. Demand for AI skills increased nearly 200 percent in a year, with London accounting for 80 percent of AI-related job postings and nearly two-thirds of all technology vacancies in the UK The Register (Accenture data). So while overall hiring is restrained, the roles tied to AI transformation are where employers are still competing hardest.
The clearest shift is at the start of careers. Adzuna has seen a 30% drop in UK entry-level job postings since ChatGPT's launch, with graduates facing the toughest job market since 2018 techUK – What's actually happening with entry-level and graduate jobs?. The tech sector shows this most starkly: UK tech graduate jobs fell by 46 percent in the past year, with a further 53 percent drop projected The Register.
This is where counterfactual impact earns its place in the conversation. When AI tools can handle more routine, repeatable tasks, the question employers now ask is simple: what does a hire add that would not happen anyway? The gap is already visible by level. In engineering, entry-level hiring has fallen to -19% while senior hiring sits at -10%, a 9-percentage-point gap GOV.UK - A snapshot of entry-level hiring in the UK. Employers are weighting roles that create impact a tool cannot replicate: judgement, specialist depth and the ability to direct AI rather than compete with it.
Start by defining the counterfactual before you write the job description. Ask what measurably changes because this person joins, and what would stagnate without them. That single question keeps you focused on the specialist skills still in short supply, including AI, data, enterprise applications and cyber security Computer Weekly (tech recruitment outlook 2026), rather than on tasks an AI tool now covers.
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